Monday, October 22, 2012

Rankings (Revamped) - Week 8

To me, rankings are like any other engineering problem I deal with on a daily basis: there is not a perfect solution, there is no a perfect approach, and there is not a perfect process.  What that means is that these rankings, like any other rankings, are a work in progress.

Here's a quick breakdown of the rankings were established:

A win earns you points, ranging from 5 for a FCS win to 20 for a top-level BCS win.  A loss gives you negative points, ranging from -20 for a loss to FCS school to -5 for a top-level BCS school.  Once points have been awarded/removed, a multiplier is applied based upon margin of victory, with 1.0 for 10 points or less, 1.2 for 11-20,etc... up to 2.0 for a margin of victory greater than 50.  

Finally, a second multiplier is applied based upon game location.  Stats show home teams have an approximate 10% greater chance of winning than road teams.  As such, road teams are given a 10% bump while home teams are given a 10% penalty.  Neutral games have no change.

Rankings are based upon average weekly scores.  Beside these rankings are the BCS rankings to give a baseline.  Below the rankings are a few thoughts. 




WEEK
RANK BCS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 AVERAGE
1 1 Alabama 21.0 14.4 33.0 14.4 16.2 -- 26.4 26.4 21.69
2 2 Florida 10.8 22.0 19.8 21.6 -- 18.0 19.8 28.8 20.11

3
3 Kansas St 8.1 21.6 10.8 22.0 -- 21.6 16.5 29.7 18.61
4 4 Oregon 12.6 10.8 8.1 24.3 -- 23.1 21.6 23.1 17.66
5 8 Oklahoma 13.2 9.0 -- -5.6 -- 30.8 27.0 24.3 16.46
6 7 Oregon St -- 13.5 -- 16.5 16.5 16.2 13.2 16.2 15.35
7 5 Notre Dame 16.0 16.5 16.2 13.5 -- 21.6 13.5 9.0 15.19
8 12 Florida St 9.0 9.0 27.0 21.6 19.8 -9.1 24.3 19.8 15.18
9 15 Rutgers 13.2 6.3 16.5 16.5 -- 16.2 13.5 18.9 14.44
10 -- Ohio St 12.6 10.8 13.5 10.8 16.5 18.9 16.5 13.5 14.14
11 10 Georgia 12.6 23.1 14.4 24.3 13.5 -6.4 -- 16.5 14.01
12 11 Mississippi St 8.1 16.2 11.0 10.8 -- 19.8 13.5 16.2 13.66
13 6 LSU 12.6 21.6 16.2 16.5 5.4 -4.5 18.0 22.0 13.47
14 13 South Car. 16.5 14.4 14.4 18.9 23.1 25.2 -4.5 -7.3 12.59
15 29 La Tech -- 11.0 10.8 23.1 16.5 12.6 -4.5 16.2 12.24
16 18 Clemson 15.0 12.6 7.2 -5.5 19.8 16.2 -- 18.9 12.04
17 14 Texas Tech 7.2 19.8 14.4 -- 19.8 -15.6 21.6 16.5 11.96
18 16 Louisville 16.2 6.3 13.5 11.0 5.5 -- 16.5 13.5 11.79
19 9 Southern Cal 7.2 18.0 -9.1 16.2 -- 16.5 16.5 16.2 11.64
20 20 Texas A&M -- -5.6 19.8 9.0 24.3 16.5 16.5 -5.6 10.71
21 22 Michigan -7.0 9.0 8.1 -4.5 -- 26.4 24.3 13.5 9.96
22 34 Arizona St 9.0 21.6 -9.1 18.9 16.5 -- 17.6 -7.8 9.53
23 -- Penn St -16.7 -9.1 12.6 16.2 23.1 16.2 -- 23.1 9.35
24 17 Stanford 9.0 21.6 13.5 -- -9.1 13.5 -4.5 19.8 9.11
25 23 Texas 10.8 16.2 26.4 -- 16.5 -11.1 -9.0 13.5 9.04
26 37 Northern Ill. -10.0 6.3 11.0 13.5 14.4 13.2 16.2 7.7 9.04
27 24 Ohio 16.5 7.7 11.0 7.2 5.5 9.0 4.5 -- 8.77
28 25 Wisconsin 4.5 -4.5 9.0 10.8 -9.1 16.2 23.1 18.9 8.61
29 28 TCU -- 9.0 19.8 16.2 11.0 -13.3 23.1 -5.6 8.60
30 36 Northwestern 16.5 13.5 13.5 7.2 16.2 -5.5 16.5 -11.1 8.35
31 40 UCLA 15.4 13.5 14.4 -4.5 15.4 -12.7 16.5 -- 8.28
32 31 Toledo -9.1 11.0 10.8 4.5 13.2 10.8 11.0 13.5 8.21
33 33 Tulsa -10.9 14.4 8.1 9.0 11.0 11.0 12.6 9.0 8.02
34 30 Cincinnati -- 18.9 -- 5.4 15.0 14.4 7.2 -13.6 7.88
35 39 La Monroe -- 16.5 -9.1 -11.1 22.0 13.2 12.6 11.0 7.87
36 21 Boise St -9.1 -- 12.6 9.0 11.0 7.7 9.0 12.6 7.54
37 53 Kent St 5.4 -14.5 13.2 -- 9.0 15.4 13.2 10.8 7.49
38 35 Duke 10.8 -7.3 7.2 12.6 16.5 18.9 -12.7 13.5 7.44
39 38 NC State -12.0 16.5 12.6 7.2 -9.1 18.0 -- 16.5 7.10
40 19 West Virginia 14.4 -- 7.0 13.5 13.5 16.5 -7.3 -10.0 6.80
41 32 Oklahoma St 9.0 -10.9 16.2 -- -11.1 -- 16.5 18.9 6.43
42 -- UNC 9.0 -9.1 -4.5 12.6 18.0 16.2 16.5 -9.1 6.20
43 26 Nebraska 6.3 -9.1 12.6 9.0 13.5 -12.7 -- 16.5 5.15
44 27 Arizona 9.0 18.9 9.0 -8.2 -5.6 -9.1 -- 21.6 5.10
45 47 Utah St 7.2 13.5 -9.1 6.6 12.6 -13.6 15.4 7.2 4.97
46 58 UCF 9.9 -5.5 10.8 -- -11.1 10.8 4.5 13.2 4.66
47 41 Nevada 16.5 -11.1 5.4 9.9 13.2 9.0 11.0 -16.7 4.65
48 42 Western Ky 7.2 -7.3 16.5 6.3 13.2 -- 11.0 -16.7 4.32
49 43 Iowa St 10.8 16.5 7.2 -- -6.7 19.8 -5.6 -12.7 4.19
50 55 Mississippi 6.3 10.8 -17.8 17.6 -5.5 -5.6 18.9 -- 3.54
51 62 Maryland 4.5 19.8 -11.1 -9.1 -- 13.5 16.5 -11.1 3.28
52 46 Michigan St 13.5 17.6 -6.7 10.8 -5.6 16.5 -11.1 -9.1 3.25
53 45 San Jose St -9.1 7.2 5.4 9.1 13.2 -- -20.0 15.4 3.03
54 61 Ball St 10.8 -6.4 16.5 13.5 -13.6 -20.0 9.0 13.2 2.88
55 60 Fresno St 6.3 -5.5 18.0 -13.6 10.8 7.7 -13.6 12.6 2.83
56 69 La Lafayette 7.2 13.2 -16.4 -- 12.6 12.6 -- -13.6 2.60
57 54 Miami 16.5 -7.3 6.3 16.5 13.5 -14.5 -5.6 -6.7 2.34
58 65 Wake Forest 4.5 13.5 -9.1 10.8 -11.1 -9.1 -- 16.5 2.29
59 48 Iowa 10.0 -11.1 5.4 -16.7 16.2 -- 16.5 -7.8 1.79
60 67 Temple 7.2 -11.1 -- -10.9 -- 16.2 16.5 -7.8 1.68
61 50 Vanderbilt -5.6 -9.1 9.0 -8.2 -- 16.5 -6.7 13.5 1.36
62 68 East Carolina 7.2 -7.3 5.5 -12.7 9.0 -16.4 14.4 11.0 1.34
63 70 Virginia Tech 13.5 6.3 -10.9 14.4 -10.0 -16.4 18.9 -6.4 1.18
64 48 Tennessee 18.0 7.2 -5.4 6.3 -4.5 -- -4.5 -8.9 1.16
65 59 BYU 18.9 7.2 -9.1 -13.6 8.1 9.0 -6.7 -4.5 1.16
66 88 MTSU -22.2 10.8 13.2 -- 23.1 -20.0 11.0 -8.2 1.10
67 72 BGSU -5.5 9.0 -16.4 -14.5 7.2 6.6 12.6 7.7 0.84
68 74 Troy 11.0 -20.0 -5.6 11.0 15.4 -- -16.7 9.0 0.60
69 56 Navy -8.0 -- -12.7 7.2 -20.0 11.0 13.2 13.5 0.60
70 63 Minnesota 11.0 7.2 9.0 13.5 -10.9 -- -13.3 -12.7 0.53
71 71 San Diego St -9.1 14.4 4.5 -16.7 -16.4 7.2 6.3 11.0 0.16
72 72 Arkansas St -6.4 9.0 -12.7 9.0 -20.0 13.2 9.0 -- 0.16
73 -- UTSA 11.0 5.4 7.7 9.0 7.7 -- -16.4 -23.3 0.16
74 75 Syracuse -11.1 -12.0 5.4 -9.1 -- 13.5 -4.5 18.9 0.15
75 57 Arkansas 6.3 -16.7 -11.1 -6.7 -16.4 19.8 24.3 -- -0.06
76 51 Missouri 9.0 -7.8 13.5 -6.4 11.0 -11.1 -8.9 -- -0.09
77 93 Georgia Tech -9.1 9.0 21.6 -11.1 -23.3 -5.5 -- 16.2 -0.31
78 52 Baylor 14.4 -- 6.3 11.0 -9.1 -- -15.6 -9.1 -0.34
79 81 Air Force 6.3 -9.1 -- -13.6 7.7 -16.7 11.0 9.0 -0.77
80 90 Pittsburgh -26.7 -6.4 16.2 8.1 -- -9.1 -4.5 13.2 -1.31
81 44 Washington 9.0 -7.3 7.2 -- 13.5 -6.4 -11.1 -14.5 -1.37
82 66 California -16.7 5.4 -4.5 -10.9 -11.1 18.9 19.8 -13.3 -1.56
83 64 Purdue 8.1 -4.5 14.4 -- 9.0 -17.8 -15.6 -4.5 -1.56
84 84 SMU -12.7 9.0 -10.0 -- -11.1 13.2 -13.6 12.6 -1.81
85 87 North Texas -6.4 12.6 -6.6 -13.5 11.0 -19.1 -- 9.0 -1.85
86 91 Connecticut 7.2 -9.1 16.5 -13.6 9.0 -5.5 -11.1 -12.7 -2.42
87 77 New Mexico 8.1 -16.4 -7.3 6.6 -16.7 12.6 6.6 -13.6 -2.50
88 84 Texas St 13.2 -10.0 -- 4.5 -20.0 -19.1 14.4 -- -2.83
89 89 Houston -20.0 -11.1 -14.5 -- 14.0 12.6 12.6 -19.1 -3.65
90 79 South Florida 6.3 11.0 -5.6 -16.7 -6.7 -11.1 -- -4.5 -3.89
91 80 Marshall -14.5 6.3 -16.7 11.0 -9.1 -16.7 -- 8.8 -4.41
92 75 Utah 8.1 -13.6 9.0 -12.7 -- -11.1 -9.1 -5.5 -4.99
93 94 Western Mich -10.9 7.2 -9.1 13.5 -20.0 7.2 -13.6 -16.4 -5.26
94 96 Indiana 4.5 8.8 -16.7 -- -10.9 -9.0 -4.5 -13.6 -5.92
95 82 Auburn -5.0 -5.5 9.0 -5.6 -- -13.3 -12.7 -9.1 -6.02
96 78 Kentucky -5.5 14.4 -16.7 -7.3 -7.8 -6.7 -16.4 -5.6 -6.42
97 95 Virginia 6.3 13.5 -14.5 -10.9 -11.1 -12.7 -11.1 -11.1 -6.46
98 82 Miami (OH) -8.2 5.4 -19.1 4.5 5.5 -14.5 -19.1 -- -6.50
99 97 Wazzu -19.1 4.5 11.0 -16.7 -7.8 -5.5 -13.3 -- -6.69
100 108 BC -11.1 7.2 -9.1 -- -6.7 -13.6 -8.2 -10.9 -7.49
101 101 Rice -13.3 16.5 -10.9 -16.7 -19.1 -13.6 10.8 -13.6 -7.50
102 86 Illinois 10.8 -14.5 7.2 -15.6 -15.6 -10.9 -16.4 -- -7.85
103 105 So. Alabama -16.7 4.5 -12.7 -5.5 -23.3 -- -13.6 9.0 -8.33
104 98 UTEP -6.7 -10.9 5.4 -10.9 -13.6 -20.0 -19.1 9.0 -8.35
105 99 Kansas 5.4 -16.7 -13.3 -13.6 -- -7.3 -11.1 -8.2 -9.26
106 92 Central Mich 5.4 -17.8 -- 16.5 -19.1 -16.4 -16.2 -20.0 -9.65
107 102 UAB -16.7 -- -8.2 -5.5 -16.7 8.1 -19.1 -16.7 -10.66
108 115 Florida Atl 4.5 -16.4 -7.3 -7.3 -16.7 -- -19.1 -13.6 -10.83
109 111 Buffalo -6.4 6.3 -- -20.0 -9.1 -13.6 -24.5 -13.3 -11.52
110 107 Florida Int -10.9 4.5 -16.4 -5.6 -19.1 -20.0 -16.7 -13.6 -12.22
111 103 Wyoming -10.9 -16.7 -22.2 11.0 -- -13.6 -16.7 -19.1 -12.60
112 106 UNLV -11.1 -22.2 -11.1 9.0 -19.1 -12.7 -16.7 -19.1 -12.88
113 116 Army -- -21.8 -16.7 -9.1 -26.7 13.5 -20.0 -13.6 -13.48
114 110 Eastern Mich -16.4 -26.7 -14.5 -10.9 -- -23.3 -16.7 11.1 -13.91
115 109 Colorado -20.0 -22.2 -27.3 13.6 -15.6 -- -17.8 -8.2 -13.91
116 116 Idaho -26.7 -13.6 -8.2 -13.5 -18.2 4.5 -21.8 -16.4 -14.23
117 112 Memphis -22.2 -13.6 -20.0 -12.7 -- 9.0 -21.8 -20.0 -14.49
118 100 Tulane -5.6 -21.8 -- -17.8 -33.3 -19.1 9.0 -13.6 -14.60
119 118 Akron -30.0 -13.6 9.0 -12.7 -16.7 -20.0 -13.6 -23.3 -15.13
120 119 New Mex St 6.3 -19.1 -16.4 -20.0 -23.3 -13.6 -- -21.8 -15.42
121 114 Colorado St 10.0 -26.7 -16.4 -20.0 -19.1 -23.3 -19.1 -- -16.36
122 113 So. Miss -12.7 -- -16.7 -19.1 -5.6 -23.3 -13.6 -26.7 -16.81
123 104 Hawaii -14.5 -- 8.1 -30.0 -24.5 -21.8 -20.0 -- -17.13
124 120 UMass -14.5 -17.8 -16.4 -16.4 -16.7 -21.8 -- -23.3 -18.12

Thoughts:
  • Any team with greater than 10.00 is elevated to the next level.  Non-BCS elevates to BCS and BCS elevates to BCS+
  • Any BCS team (Colorado) with less than -10.00 is relegated to Non-BCS and any Non-BCS team with less than -15.00 is relegated to FCS status
  • Top 4 teams are identical to BCS
  • USC & LSU are ranked within the Top 10 in the BCS rankings while they are outside the Top 10 in these rankings.  LSU is being penalized for early season scheduling while USC is being penalized for marginally beating mediocre PAC 12 teams
  • Rutgers & Louisiana Tech are ranked higher in these rankings than BCS
What are your thoughts?  What else should be considered? 

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