Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Clemsoning - Post FSU Edition

Just last week we were spreading the word about how this Clemson team was different than the previous versions. How this one had matured and was ready to reach new heights - maybe even heights unreached since 30+ years ago.

Then Saturday night against FSU happened, and all anyone has wanted to talk about was how "Clemsoning" was not dead, but alive and well. Some even went so far as to write articles about how this is the ultimate "Clemsoning" episode, one which Clemson may never recover from.

All this is interesting because on the same day that Clemson lost, so did these teams:

  • South Carolina, to an unranked Tennessee team
  • Georgia, to an unranked Vanderbilt team
  • LSU, to an unranked Ole Miss team
  • Texas A&M, to a 24th ranked Auburn team with a new coach and unproven quarterback
  • Louisville, to an unranked Central Florida team
And yet, all anyone wants to talk about is Clemson and their loss to Florida State (don't get me wrong, it was magnificent - and at home).

A few weeks ago we broke down whether the myth of "Clemsoning" has some merit. Our findings show it is more than merited during Tommy Bowden's tenure, but not so much in Dabo Swinney's tenure. In fact, Bowden's Clemson teams finished 24th out of 25 teams analyzed. Against those same teams, Dabo comes in 11th.

Below is the updated information, along a brief explanation of each category. Once data was attained for each category, the teams were ranked 1-25 with the first ranked team receiving 25 points and the 25th ranked team receiving 1. Ties were given average credit. The results you see below are the scores for each category, not the actual result.


1999-2008 (Dabo Years)
Rank Team
T25 W UR L Val Rank Rec B2B Total
1 Alabama 25 25 24.5 25 23 122.5
2 Oregon 23 24 20.5 22 23 112.5
3 LSU 24 22.5 22 19 23 110.5
4 Oklahoma 22 19.5 24.5 17 23 106
5 Ohio St 21 19.5 23 24 14 101.5
6 Boise St 5.5 22.5 14.5 23 23 88.5
7 TCU 15.5 16 14.5 21 20 87
8 Wisconsin 15.5 11.5 14.5 12 18 71.5
9 Va Tech 11.5 16 14.5 16 9 67
10 FSU 15.5 7 18.5 8 18 66.5
11 Clemson 18 9 11 13 14 65
12 So Carolina 19 16 1.5 14 14 64.5
13 Auburn 20 7 14.5 18 5 64.5
14 Georgia 11.5 16 18.5 9 7 62
15 Florida 8.5 21 7 15 9 60.5
16 Nebraska 15.5 11.5 7 4 18 56
17 Notre Dame 11.5 4.5 20.5 7 5 48.5
18 Penn St 3 11.5 7 11 14 46.5
19 Texas 11.5 16 7 6 3 43.5
20 Michigan 4 11.5 14.5 10 2 42
21 Miami 8.5 3 3 5 14 33.5
22 So Cal 5.5 4.5 7 3 11 31
23 Louisville 1.5 1 1.5 20 5 29
24 WVU 8.5 2 7 2 9 28.5
25 Tennessee 1.5 7 7 1 1 17.5

What the data shows is that even after losing to the 5th ranked team, Clemson is still one of the top teams since Dabo Swinney arrived. And more than that, Clemson shouldn't be judged solely on the Florida State game, but also on how they respond the rest of the way.

So, enjoy the data, review the data, question the data. Question whether the "Clemsoning" term should be applied to Clemson, given to someone else, or retired all together. But don't question whether this Clemson team is defined by those previous versions.

Below is the raw data (starting in 2009 and going through week of October 19) before it was sorted and points awarded:
  •  Top 25 Wins - Cumulative Top 25 wins
  • Unranked Losses - Cumulative unranked losses
  • Validation Wins - Difference between wins and losses versus FBS schools immediately following Top 25 win
  • Record while Ranked - Winning percentage in all games, regardless of opponent, while ranked
  • Back to Back Losses - Cumulative back to back losses
Team
Top 25 W UR Loss Validate Rank B2B
Alabama 22 0 12 91.8% 0
Auburn 11 9 3 78.3% 8
Boise St 5 2 3 90.2% 0
Clemson 9 8 2 73.5% 4
Florida 6 4 1 75.0% 6
FSU 8 9 4 68.4% 3
Louisville 2 22 -1 85.0% 8
LSU 19 2 8 80.3% 0
Miami 6 12 0 66.7% 4
Michigan 4 7 3 69.7% 10
Nebraska 8 7 1 66.0% 3
Notre Dame 7 11 7 68.0% 8
Ohio St 13 5 10 91.7% 4
Oklahoma 14 5 12 76.8% 0
Oregon 15 1 7 88.3% 0
Penn St 3 7 1 70.4% 4
So Carolina 10 6 -1 74.0% 4
So Cal 5 11 1 65.0% 5
TCU 8 6 3 85.7% 2
Tennessee 2 9 1 0.0% 13
Texas 7 6 1 67.6% 9
UGA 7 6 4 69.4% 7
Va Tech 7 6 3 75.0% 6
Wisconsin 8 7 3 72.1% 3
WVU 6 13 1 62.5% 6

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